Table crises in the past years made more obvious

Table of Contents
Abstract 2
Introduction. 3
Literature Review.. 4
Problem Identification. 5
Recommendation/Solution. 7
Developing new Energy Resources: 7
Nuclear Energy: 7
Natural gas exploration: 8
Natural gas import: 8
Coal Energy: 8
Renewable Resources: (Unlimited – sustainable – clean): 8
Hydro power: 8
Wind Energy: 9
Solar Energy: 9
Conclusion. 10
References. 11
 

 

 

Abstract

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Oil crises in the past years made more obvious the dependency of economies on fossil fuels. As a consequence, the need for new energy sources became more urgent. Renewable energy sources could provide a solution to the problem, as they are inexhaustible and have less adverse impacts on the environment than fossil fuels. Yet, renewable energy sources technology has not reached a high standard at which it can be considered competitive to fossil fuels. The present study deals with the energy analysis of solar energy, wind power and geothermal energy. That is, the actual use of energy from the existing available energy is discussed. In addition, renewable energy sources are compared with the non-renewable energy sources on the basis of efficiency.

 

Introduction

 

Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc. The use of energy in human life has been increasing with the age of civilization. Access to energy is fundamental to fulfil basic social needs, driving economic growth and fueling human development. With the passage of time, the growing needs for improved living standards have increased the need to explore and acquire more energy resources. There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy. Demand of Energy is increasing day by day over the years there is greater need of energy because of enhancement in lifestyle and increase in population, agricultural and industrial growth. Increase in transportation needs increases demand of energy.

Pakistan is one of the emerging economies of South Asia, where the government has declared the Power Sector as its top priority of investment. Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown.

 So far energy conservation is limited to newspaper ads lip service in seminars. No serious thought is being given to utilize the energy at the optimum level. A new culture need to develop to conserve energy. Some times on government level illiteracy is blamed for the failure of the energy conservation program. This is not true, Maximum energy is consumed by elite class which have all the resources of knowledge and communication. But for their own luxury they themselves ignore the problem. Government should seriously embark on energy conservation program.

 So far, the government is looking for private sector investment in energy sector and for itself it chooses a role of facilitator and arbitrator. We strongly suggest that a massive investment from government itself in generating units for conventional as well as new technologies are needed. Once the government sector embarks on massive plans then private sector will follow immediately.

The government exerting great efforts to develop the renewable energy. PPIB has issued letter of intent to many private sector sponsors. If a serious work is done then the total shortage can be met from Hydro and wind power sector. This is also suggested that small loans should be provided to consumers to install small hydro and solar cells for one family usage of electricity. The mechanism should be made that instead of monthly bills loan recovery each month to be carried out.

Literature Review

 

Several works in shape of articles, thesis, books, dissertations and magazines have been done to enhance the reduction of energy consumption and to enlarge energy crisis so the significance of the energy should be realized. The crux of the researches is as follows: Karen (2008) expounds in his research article that economic crisis is ebbing the industrial world. It is leaving the adverse effects on the entire world. Therefore, it is mandatory to save electricity. He deplores the frittering of energy in terms of electricity. Therefore, he suggests many alternatives to save electricity. Jahaur (2009) elaborates the two reasons for the latest and worst energy crisis in Pakistan and the gap amid demand and supply. Todd (2008) scrutinizes in his article that we should save electricity to cease the recession and energy crisis. The building energy data book (2007) renders a study about heating and cooling appliances. According to the study, space heating and space cools cover 31% and 12% of the electricity bill respectively. Horsky and Simon (1983) scrutinize the effects of advertisement on new and novel products. Chris (2007) exemplifies that TV sets use energy even when TV sets are turned off. Dawood (2007) suggests replacing old appliances with energy efficient models in order to save energy or electricity. Meier (2004) renders in his study that programs to save electricity through change in behavior are very salutary and the aftermath of these programs are very fateful, because these programs enforce the hasty implementation. Dave (2010) explains in his article the history of electricity. Andrew (2010) suggests people to change their life style so that the reduction of energy consumption can be made possible. Jones (2010) sheds light on the significance of energy savers. Tom (2010) highlights the importance of wind power. Solar (2009) exemplifies that we should use heavy appliances during nighttime instead of daytime. George (2008) elaborates that a full refrigerator consumes less energy than an empty fridge. Oglivy (2006) highlights the rules to build and run a good campaign. In the same way Business (2010) in their on-line article emphasizes the points of good advertising. A low and stable level of inflation is one the major goals of any economy. The question then arises that how to achieve a low level of inflation or how to maintain inflation at the current level. To understand this, one needs to look at the causes of inflation. Inflation can be caused in two broad situations. One is where “too much money is chasing too few goods” i.e., demand pull inflation. The other is when increase in prices of raw materials drive up costs of production, which feed into the prices of finished goods. This is referred to as cost-push inflation. Inflation has a twofold effect on the economy. It can be bad as well as good. Inflation can be harmful to the economy (Bruno and Easterly, 1998, Khan and Senhadji, 2001, David et al., 2005) beyond a threshold level. In the case of Pakistan, that threshold happens to be 9% (Mubarik, 2005). These touch upon different aspects of the topic, but what I perceive is lacking in scholarship is an approach to analyze Pakistan’s energy basket as a whole, along with political, regional, and global implications. Current literature reveals that energy poverty is a diverse, long-standing, and multifaceted issue. However, economists regard it as an issue of only circular debts. Elizabeth Mills, an expert on energy and environmental issues, has described Pakistan’s energy problems as follows: “For the political observers, it is an issue of absent political will. For the aid organization specialist, it is a governance problem. For the engineer, it is a matter of resolving technical problems, improving energy conservation, and addressing issues like theft and nonpayment of electricity bills.” (Mills). The aforementioned problems are logical, yet regional energy and geopolitics are important additional factors that seriously influence Pakistan’s current energy scenario. This situation is a testimony to the country’s inability to capitalize on regional energy resources. Therefore, the review of literature can be summarized as follows.

Problem Identification

 

 Pakistan is in the midst of one of the worst energy crises in its history. This is both slowing the pace of economic activity and causing public unrest with prolonged outages of electricity and gas. Capacity utilization in some key industries has fallen to nearly 50 percent. Worst affected is the fertilizer industry, which faces interruptions to its gas supply and forced closures. Pakistan has the capacity to produce more than one million tons in exportable surplus urea, yet in 2011-12 it imported more than 1.1 million tons. This eroded the country’s foreign exchange reserves and effectively entailed the payment of millions of dollars in subsidies, being the difference between the costs of locally produced and imported urea. Pakistan urgently needs to make some strategic decisions and change the national energy mix.

Immediately after assuming power, the new government came up with two policy decisions: pay half a trillion rupees (just under $5 billion) to energy companies and announce a new power policy. Both steps are aimed at resolving problems plaguing the companies belonging to the energy chain and bringing change to Pakistan’s energy mix to optimize the average cost of electricity generation.

Pakistan’s government paid Rs260 billion in cash to independent power plants (IPPs) to clear outstanding debt. It also issued bonds to pay off liabilities pertaining to state-owned companies such as exploration and production firms and oil and gas marketing entities. After clearing the debt of the IPPs, it was expected that they would be able to generate 1,700MW in additional electricity, attenuating the shortfall that currently exceeds 6,000MW. The situation is likely to improve over time.

According to the available data, at present installed power generation capacity in Pakistan is estimated to about 22,500MW (excluding the Karachi Energy Supply Company, more on which below), but actual power generation hovers around 15,000MW, partly because of outdated and inefficient power plants and partly because of a cash crunch, which often does not permit power plants to operate at optimum capacity because of the inability to buy the required furnace oil. This could be best understood when one looks at the available data on power plants operating in the public sector, which have an installed capacity of over 4,800MW but actual generation hovering around 1,200MW.

At present, the bulk of electricity supply comes from hydroelectric plants (6,500MW) and IPPs (6,500MW). The output of the hydro plants is dependent on water availability in the dams, and can fall to as low as 2,500MW when water levels drop drastically. And as we have seen, IPP output is limited by money problems.

Pakistan’s woes have been exacerbated by its excessive reliance on thermal power plants, mainly using furnace oil. Two factors contributed to the emergence of this situation: a change in lenders from the public to private sector, and Pakistan’s failure to complete a hydroelectric project in recent decades. The last mega dam, Tarbella, was completed in the mid-seventies and no other dam has been constructed since. After the signing of the Indus Water Treaty with India, Pakistan was required to complete construction of one mega-size hydroelectricity plant per decade to ensure year-round availability of low cost electricity and irrigation water. Of Pakistan’s 6,500MW hydro capacity, the bulk is contributed by three projects: Mangla, Tarbella and Ghazi Brotha. There are nearly two dozen IPPs, but the major players are Hub Power Company, Kot Addu Power Company and Uch Power Plant. Pakistan also has three nuclear power plants, two in Punjab and one in Karachi, with aggregate capacity of over 800MW. However, the Karachi plant is at the end of its effective life and its capacity cannot be termed “dependable.”

Unlike the rest of Pakistan, Karachi gets its electricity from a compact utility, Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC), which handles generation, transmission and distribution. The bulk of its generation comes from the Bin Qasim Power Plant, which has an installed capacity of 1,260MW. Another 500MW comes from smaller units. Since privatization, KESC has added another 500WM capacity at Bin Qasim but its output has remained erratic because of the inconsistent supply of gas.

The main causes of Energy crisis are the growing demand of energy where for its production there is lack of integrated and proactive planning which leads it towards crises. Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources like Hydal power generation and Thar coal, Pakistan is rich in these recourses but lack of management causes energy crises. Imbalanced energy mix is also one the cause of Energy crises in Pakistan. Consequences of Energy Crisis in Economic Factors are getting worse, same Agriculture, Industrial Sector. Unemployment is increasing day by day due to energy crises so as Social Issues. Poverty is also increasing due to energy crises.

 

 

Recommendation/Solution

Energy crisis can be curtailed by Government if they invest to cover up line loses, they have to pay circular dept. Government of Pakistan, in order to conserve electric energy should convert inefficient gas plants to efficient one. They must have to invest in alternating electricity sources such as Wind Energy plants and Solar Energy plants (while they are less mechanical then wind plants). As Industries takes 33% of our electricity, Government must have to apply Management measures and Energy Conservation Systems. Government of Pakistan can start producing their own energy with their own investment without depending upon the grid. Energy crisis can be reduced by reducing the unnecessary use of Energy. Reducing unnecessary use of transportation by developing a good transport public system (more like metro bus system) and also, by strengthening Railways System. Crisis can be curtailed by making some awareness campaign for energy saving that people should use electric saving devices. More over Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective). Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are increasing prices of electricity. Also, by decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables.

Judicious energy use/saving unnecessary energy usage is the best solution of energy crisis. Use of electricity saving devices can save electricity. By starting some Awareness campaign for energy saving through media, radio, newspapers and posters. Reduction in unnecessary transportations will save unnecessary use of energy people should instead use public transport. Installation of effective equipment/energy efficient in industries is the best way to save energy same as, decreasing line/transmission losses can decrease energy crises.

 

Developing new Energy Resources:

Another way to overcome energy crises is to develop new energy resources, for this Government of Pakistan have to think. By tapping indigenous resources like Thar coal we can increase energy. Thar Coal reserves are the biggest coal reserves in the world. By this we can easily utilize energy for another 100 years. Using renewable resources (renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat. like; water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plants to Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipelines.  Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines. Utilizing alternative energy resources like Wind Power Biodiesel/Biomass Solar Tidal are best way to decrease energy crises. Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity can also overcome energy crises.

Nuclear Energy:

KANUPP was established with the help of the Canadian Government in the 1960’s and nearing end of its lifecycle. The “Chashrna Nuclear Power Plant” has been designed and built in collaboration with People’s Republic of China, and is being operated and maintained by Pakistani scientists and engineers, delivering full power of 300 mw to the national grid. With the Karachi Nuclear Power Plant also operational since 1971, Pakistan is the only country in the Muslim World operating nuclear power plants. Nuclear power is safe, economical and environment-friendly.

Natural gas exploration:

 

Pakistan still has huge untapped gas reserves. If we allocate more resources to their exploration there is a possibility that in the near future part of the energy resource gap may be met from new reserves. The current gas prices and the limits they place on increasing the profitability of this sector would not attract any reasonable amount of investment, whether local or foreign, since the cost of exploration has gone up substantially and current well head prices do not justify further investment at the current rate of return. The other factor discouraging exploration of new gas reserves, which would continue to haunt us, is the law and order situation in most of the areas where gas finds can be a possibility.

Natural gas import:

 

The IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project is also a long story (global political situation is not being discussed for obvious reasons) but the current plan to lay the 54 inch pipeline through the coastal area has a major flaw. Even if Pakistan starts building the pipeline on priority basis, it may take 5 years to complete the project (i.e. by 2013), and it may plug the energy gap only thereafter.

Coal Energy:

 

Pakistan has enormous coal reserves (probably the third largest in the world) that remain untapped and even the industries that have converted from gas to coal as their energy source have to import coal mostly from Indonesia, which is again a drain on Pakistan’s scarce foreign exchange reserves.

 

Renewable Resources: (Unlimited – sustainable – clean):

Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.

Hydro power:

Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
 

Current Hydropower stations:

 

Tarbella Dam:                   3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha:                   1450 MW
Mangla                              1,000 MW
Warsak                              240 MW
Chashma                           184 MW

 

Potential Hydropower stations:
 
Diamer-Bhasha Dam                                              4500 MW
 Munda Dam – Swat River in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
 Kalabagh Dam                                                       2400-3600 MW
 Bunji Dam                                                             5400 MW
 Dasu Dam                                                              3800 MW

 

Wind Energy:

Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi. The government is following a policy to encourage investment in wind energy. Two corridors have been identified in Sindh, and land has been allocated to various wind energy projects. The issues confronting the wind power sector are as under:

(a) Scarcity of equipment: wind power equipment is in short supply, the world over. Propelled by GDP growth needs, demand for energy has been growing globally, and as cost of energy derived from fossil fuels has increased two-fold during the last three years, the demand of wind power equipment has also grown manifold.

(b) Due to growth in demand and increase in the cost of metals, especially steel and its products, the price of equipment required for wind power has also increased manifold.

To install this initially expensive but eventually very economical technology, in the first instance Pakistan may start importing and installing the equipment to generate electricity but in the long run it must encourage domestic production of the equipment.

 

Solar Energy:

Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels. At present, except for low-ampere domestic use, solar energy is a distant possibility, although in a country like Pakistan where clouds are a rarity for most part of the year it could be a workable option. There is a simple way of harnessing this energy for the industry, which is dependent on steam generation through oil or gas-fired boilers. Water can be pre-heated by converging sun rays on tanks made of metals/alloys that can easily absorb the heat. This pre-heating can reduce the cost of producing steam and reduce the energy resource gap to an extent, though negligible.

Conclusion

 

Energy Crisis has, moral less, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the country.